When two bloggers in Azerbaijan were thrown in
jail last year for a satirical video making fun of the government of Azeri
President Ilham Aliyev, a (unnamed) source told the U.S. embassy in Baku that
if you wanted to understand the mercurial ruler, you had to think of The Godfather: "He's not Michael
Corleone," the source said of Aliyev; "he's Sonny."
The reference to Vito Corleone's sons in the famous Francis
Ford Coppola film -- the first, Michael, pragmatic and calculating in his efforts to hang
onto his family's organized crime empire after an attack on Vito; the second,
Sonny, hot-tempered and preoccupied with vengeance -- sets a Baku embassy official off
on an extended, and inspired, riff on the
subject of which Corleone, exactly, the Caucasian strongman resembles most.
The cable, filed by Charge d'Affaires Donald Lu, works off of the premise
of John Hulsman's and A. Wess Mitchell's notion
of the "Godfather Doctrine," but the author suggests that the comparison may be
particularly apt in the Azeri case:
Because of family connections, dynastic succession, the
strong arming of the opposition and the creation of an elaborate
patronage/protection network, the Aliyev Administration has developed an "organized
crime" image in some quarters, leading some analysts to see Ilham Aliyev at
times in a mafia-like role.
The diplomat-essayist concludes that, in fact, Aliyev is a
Michael abroad and a Sonny at home, crediting the president with maintaining
the "clever, realistic foreign policy" of his father, President Heydar Aliyev, while
savagely punishing his domestic enemies:
As Aliyev perceives a challenge to his authority or affronts
to his family dignity, even minor ones, he and his inner circle are apt to
react (or overreact), much to the detriment of the country's democratic
development and movement toward Western alliances.
But the cable suggests that Aliyev's repressive domestic
tendencies may be in part the work of his longtime presidential administrator, Ramiz
Mehdiyev, and wonders,
Is [Mehdiyev] the puppet or the puppet-master? At age 71 and
often seen in frail health, this is an increasingly important question. While
the rule of 47-year-old Ilham Aliyev could continue for decades, it would be
most likely without the benefit of his consigliere. Without Mehdiyev, it is not
clear whom Aliyev will turn to for help in maintaining the same firm grip on
the instruments of power.
(Thanks to FP contributor Haley Edwards for the tip.)
COMMENTS (0)
Read More
